01.29.2009
Japanese website IT Media News had an article about how Japanese anime isn't selling anymore (Japanese text only).
The Japanese media has been singing how anime is a new commodity that can be exported to the world ever since Pokemon became a hit worldwide over 10 years ago & even though the market got stagnant around 2005/2006 and outright horrible in 2007/2008... they still hyped the notion that anime was "hip" in the US.
Nikkei BP, which is a financial news company (think of them like Wall Street Journal), has been writing pieces that are more accurate of the actual US & global market... but it's good to see another news outlet echo what everyone in the industry has been feeling all these years.
Let me summarize what the article says.
1. There was a time when ANYTHING sold
The article talks about how Evangelion, then Pokemon, then Yu-Gi-Oh, then Naruto became hits... and the anime license business became a seller's market. That's when any title sold (and we all know that w/ the slew of virtually unknown titles being picked up). The article lists Keroro Gunsou (Sgt Frog) and Blue Dragon being prepared for the global market right now.
I understand Blue Dragon... but Keroro? Don't get me wrong. I adore Keroro. But they need to do a different approach if they want to be the next Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (wrong cold-blooded creature?).
2. Currently anime exporting business is tough in the US, Europe & Asia
Problems listed w/ anime overseas:
a) Broadcasters are starting to not like Japanese anime b/c of the violence and/or tendency to be merchandising heavy.
b) Anime broadcasting slots shrinking w/ 4KidsTV getting out of Fox and Cartoon Network decreasing anime slot times.
c) Anime business model built around TV broadcasting failed due to illegal download sites & torrants. Broadcasters can't get the viewership because viewers already watched fansubs.
3. Japanese anime business market shrinking after 2006
AT-X VP of anime programming Iwata-san is quoted as saying, "There are too many negative aspects for the anime industry." He sites 40% of TV broadcasters in Japan are in the red (55 out of 127); anime can't get viewership, so can't be aired during the "golden time"; there are few titles where the anime alone can be a hit title. The only positive he mentioned is that there are more mediums anime can be shown now, such as cable/sattelite TV, internet, cell phone and video game consols.
4. Why TV Tokyo decided to team up w/ Crunchyroll in the US
Some stats on Crunchyroll, for those who are interested, although I think some of the data is used w/o telling the entire background.
a) In January, Crunchyroll started making popular titles like Naruto & Gintama one-hour after broadcast in Japan & their paid membership increased to 10,000 members in one month. Crunchyroll charges $7.00 per month.
b) Compare to AT-X, who charges 1,575 yen ($15) per month. And it took them 10 years to get 100,000 paid members.
c) Naruto gets about 160,000 hits per episode over three sites that provide the show for free using the ad banner model.
Anyhoo, here's the interesting part.
"Online broadcasting/streaming isn't just for paid membership & ad revenue, but to curtail the motivation of fansubbers who devote their life to fansubbing by providing subtitles for shows before they can get to it, which will prevent illegal downloads."
I'm on the camp that thinks stopping fansubs won't save the industry. Fansubs or not, those who download copies for free aren't going to turn around & buy anime if they don't think it's worth paying for. It's getting them to think "I want to own this" which is important.
But then again, I could see why Toei, TV Tokyo, Shueisha, Gonzo among others are teaming up with Crunchyroll. It was an illegal download site (still is for some part?), but it was a site they thought they could control... than say some IRC channel? If it's going to be made available elsewhere, why not use a site that'll pay up & provide user data?
Of course I don't know how well an ad revenue based business model will work for anime... but that's a whole separate issue that I'll talk about some other time.
So AT-X VP does wrap up his seminar at Anime Business Forum 2009 at Digital Hollywood school by saying this. "The supply and demand is inbalanced & there are unfilled slots. TV stations can no longer be snobby and do business anymore."
I mentioned back in Industry Blog 2.0 about how the anime TV broadcasting system works in Japan. For a long time, they (TV stations) thought they were the ONLY way anime can be made & released. If TV stations realize they need to change their business model, it's a good start and finally the anime industry in Japan and worldwide can get healthy.
Japanese website IT Media News had an article about how Japanese anime isn't selling anymore (Japanese text only).
The Japanese media has been singing how anime is a new commodity that can be exported to the world ever since Pokemon became a hit worldwide over 10 years ago & even though the market got stagnant around 2005/2006 and outright horrible in 2007/2008... they still hyped the notion that anime was "hip" in the US.
Nikkei BP, which is a financial news company (think of them like Wall Street Journal), has been writing pieces that are more accurate of the actual US & global market... but it's good to see another news outlet echo what everyone in the industry has been feeling all these years.
Let me summarize what the article says.
1. There was a time when ANYTHING sold
The article talks about how Evangelion, then Pokemon, then Yu-Gi-Oh, then Naruto became hits... and the anime license business became a seller's market. That's when any title sold (and we all know that w/ the slew of virtually unknown titles being picked up). The article lists Keroro Gunsou (Sgt Frog) and Blue Dragon being prepared for the global market right now.
I understand Blue Dragon... but Keroro? Don't get me wrong. I adore Keroro. But they need to do a different approach if they want to be the next Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (wrong cold-blooded creature?).
2. Currently anime exporting business is tough in the US, Europe & Asia
Problems listed w/ anime overseas:
a) Broadcasters are starting to not like Japanese anime b/c of the violence and/or tendency to be merchandising heavy.
b) Anime broadcasting slots shrinking w/ 4KidsTV getting out of Fox and Cartoon Network decreasing anime slot times.
c) Anime business model built around TV broadcasting failed due to illegal download sites & torrants. Broadcasters can't get the viewership because viewers already watched fansubs.
3. Japanese anime business market shrinking after 2006
AT-X VP of anime programming Iwata-san is quoted as saying, "There are too many negative aspects for the anime industry." He sites 40% of TV broadcasters in Japan are in the red (55 out of 127); anime can't get viewership, so can't be aired during the "golden time"; there are few titles where the anime alone can be a hit title. The only positive he mentioned is that there are more mediums anime can be shown now, such as cable/sattelite TV, internet, cell phone and video game consols.
4. Why TV Tokyo decided to team up w/ Crunchyroll in the US
Some stats on Crunchyroll, for those who are interested, although I think some of the data is used w/o telling the entire background.
a) In January, Crunchyroll started making popular titles like Naruto & Gintama one-hour after broadcast in Japan & their paid membership increased to 10,000 members in one month. Crunchyroll charges $7.00 per month.
b) Compare to AT-X, who charges 1,575 yen ($15) per month. And it took them 10 years to get 100,000 paid members.
c) Naruto gets about 160,000 hits per episode over three sites that provide the show for free using the ad banner model.
Anyhoo, here's the interesting part.
"Online broadcasting/streaming isn't just for paid membership & ad revenue, but to curtail the motivation of fansubbers who devote their life to fansubbing by providing subtitles for shows before they can get to it, which will prevent illegal downloads."
I'm on the camp that thinks stopping fansubs won't save the industry. Fansubs or not, those who download copies for free aren't going to turn around & buy anime if they don't think it's worth paying for. It's getting them to think "I want to own this" which is important.
But then again, I could see why Toei, TV Tokyo, Shueisha, Gonzo among others are teaming up with Crunchyroll. It was an illegal download site (still is for some part?), but it was a site they thought they could control... than say some IRC channel? If it's going to be made available elsewhere, why not use a site that'll pay up & provide user data?
Of course I don't know how well an ad revenue based business model will work for anime... but that's a whole separate issue that I'll talk about some other time.
So AT-X VP does wrap up his seminar at Anime Business Forum 2009 at Digital Hollywood school by saying this. "The supply and demand is inbalanced & there are unfilled slots. TV stations can no longer be snobby and do business anymore."
I mentioned back in Industry Blog 2.0 about how the anime TV broadcasting system works in Japan. For a long time, they (TV stations) thought they were the ONLY way anime can be made & released. If TV stations realize they need to change their business model, it's a good start and finally the anime industry in Japan and worldwide can get healthy.
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