Anime Vice News

Essay: The Anime Industry of the Future?

Just some speculations on my part about where we might see the anime industry in the future.


There's a lot of interesting things to say about Crunchyroll and FUNimation's streaming licenses of currently-running shows in Japan, allowing for international simul- and near-simul-broadcasting of the shows.

One of the things that struck me the most: when FUNimation announced that they'd be streaming Phantom ~Requiem for the Phantom~, I followed up and learned that they did NOT have the license to release DVDs or anything else. At first it seemed odd and I thought it was probably that the Japanese company wasn't ready to sell the license because they wanted to see how the show did.

But the more I thought about it the more I realized how clever it is-- FUNimation basically gets a test run to see how well the show does, what people like about it, and how to market it, all for considerably less overhead cost than a full release was. They can decide whether it would sell on DVD at all, whether it's a show that would be best served by a dub, whether it might be a candidate for TV broadcast, and all that other good stuff.

I eventually started painting myself a picture of what the future of the North American anime industry might entail. First off, I expect to see a lot less anime available on DVD-- the market has been shrinking, and while I don't think it's dying, and while it may even expand again in the future, I think the time of the anime DVD may be over.

That doesn't mean we won't have legitimate access to it, though. I pictured most anime getting licensed for streaming-only releases, simultaneously for bigger series, near-simultaneously or perhaps delayed slightly for lesser-known. The anime companies who acquire these licenses get all the aforementioned benefits and acquire DVD and other rights as they calculate profitability.

Companies that might not have the resources for the swift subbing and streaming required from this can benefit from Crunchyroll's doing so, since CR has yet to acquire DVD rights to any of their titles. I'm not at all sure what Crunchyroll does with the information it gleans from its streaming-- it might be given to the Japanese owners as part of their contract, and maybe those owners then pass the information on to possible licensors. On the other hand, if Crunchyroll keeps that information close to the chest, they might be able to turn a bit of bonus profit selling it to North American anime companies so that they know what to license.

The manga world is a bit murkier to me in this case because we have relatively few examples of manga on the Internet, much less simultaneously-released on the 'net-- it's not hard to imagine a similar structure for manga being in place, and plenty of people read their manga online illegally...but it doesn't seem to have been quite as big a problem for manga companies as anime, perhaps because their product is cheaper. I think we'll see more online manga, possibly more simultaneous releases like Rinne, but probably only for those big names.

All speculation on my part, of course, but to riff off McDonald's...hey, it could happen. Where do YOU see the anime industry in he next five or so years?
otakureviewon April 24, 2009 at 4:05 p.m.
The only real prediction I have for the next 5-10 years is that we will see a Japanese production company and/or US licensee/distributor succeed by putting all new materials online exclusive for fans to view and download and doing away with physical copies entirely. i.e.: a Funimation type company succeeding with the Crunchyroll plan.
giaon April 24, 2009 at 4:50 p.m.
otakureview: Aren't we already kind of seeing some of that with Kadokawa's Haruhi-chan and Nyoro~n Tsuruya-san shorts?
rocketbomberon April 24, 2009 at 5:07 p.m.
@gia:

You should add this as a homework assignment for tomorrow's required reading.

(It takes me forever to write up a column and I have Other Stuff On My Plate for this weekend, but if I find some time maybe I'll attempt an analysis)
giaon April 24, 2009 at 6:27 p.m.
@rocketbomber Good idea. I'll try and remember to write that up tonight...heading to Vegas tomorrow, so I dunno how much time I'll have for posting! @_o
Stigsanon April 24, 2009 at 9:23 p.m.
While the streaming is on the rise, I felt myself not wanting to watch Shikabane Hime and now Phantom of a Requiem now that they have been moved to streaming, and I didn't even begin to watch Phantom.  I don't know what it is, but I don't really care for the formatting of subtitles done by major companies, and the youtube quality of the Shikabane Hime that I watched drives me away.

I love to get anime on DVD and watch it on my big TV, but considering the price of box sets and individual DVDs, I can't see as many people going for DVDs now.  Even the Xam'd release over PSN seemed cheaper, but considering the per episode price of $3 (is that right?), it turnes out to be even more expensive.
Papasanon April 25, 2009 at 12:34 a.m.
I went to CR 'bout an hour ago to see if they had a series that Jtor was talking about... I almost cried at how small the index is now. Oh, well. I guess Going Legit has it's price. But yes, streaming is definitely going to take over for the majority of viewable anime, with hard copy being made available only of series which are Otaku-Stamped as "Instant Classics".
Man, I'm gonna need a better video out for my Compy.
lanaswifton April 25, 2009 at 8:35 a.m.
Yeah, this is the way I kinda figure it'll go too. The Narutos, the FMAs, the Paprikas, and a few other big hits will get DVDs, and the rest will stream. I bet the potential profit margin won't be as high, so we'll still see some constriction, even if we still have access to roughly the same number of titles overall.

But I kinda worry, 'cause this'll mean that the anime companies will suddenly be getting their income from advertisers more than fans...they'll still have to do their best to keep us happy, but they'll hafta balance that with keeping ad execs happy. Hopefully that won't turn out as bad as it could.
Nikoon April 26, 2009 at 10:17 p.m.
While this does give FUNi a chance to test the waters for a potential audience, wouldn't this also possibly  drive up potential DVD licensing costs? Say FUNi finds a market for Phantom that's worth selling the DVD to. Wouldn't the Japanese owners see that as well? Now that they know there's an audience, they can charge more for a product FUNi and the audience want.

That might not happen, but it seems like a possibility.
NovidAnonon April 27, 2009 at 8:47 a.m.
The new model is never be as good as the old one, it just might be just of a bubble as the old one.

The model needs to change with the times, and the times are hard and the times will get harder.  I think the change that is needed is a deep soul searching one. I think that the industry needs to figure out what will bring respect to the business. They need to look at Family Guy success and see how they can get that audience "back". They need to work with the rest of the animation industry even if the union's don't like it. I keep telling you people, Crunchyroll (what the fuck is a Crunchyroll anyway) are nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme. There needs to be a new member of the industry that actually is more in tune with the Kanye West's of the world instead of these poor (mostly white sorry to say) "hicks" whose country has betrayed them time and again and have no culture outside of what the media and those Fascists in the belts that are called bible give them. Sadly thats not culture and its showing up with this Generic lifestyles they live and want to keep.

Its so sad and the anime dubbers have been following them to their doom.

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